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John Magufuli’s pregnant schoolgirl ban angers Tanzanian women

Image copyright AFP Image caption John Magufuli said that young mothers would be distracted in class

Tanzania's President John Magufuli has been condemned for comments that girls who give birth should not be allowed to return to school.

An online petition has been set up and a pan-African women's organisation is mobilising to get the president to apologise and reverse his comments.

Mr Magufuli warned schoolgirls at a rally on Monday that: "After getting pregnant, you are done."

A law passed in 2002 allows for the expulsion of pregnant schoolgirls.

The law says the girls can be expelled and excluded from school for "offences against morality" and "wedlock".

Women's rights groups have recently been urging the government to change the law.

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Mr Magufuli, who was speaking at a public rally in Chalinze town, about 100km west of the main city Dar es Salaam, said that young mothers would be distracted if they were allowed back in school:

"After calculating some few mathematics, she'd be asking the teacher in the classroom: 'Let me go out and breastfeed my crying baby.'"

He said that men who impregnate the schoolgirls should be imprisoned for 30 years and "put the energy they used to impregnate the girl into farming while in jail".


'I was a teenage mother': Jackie Leonard Lomboma, who runs a centre for teenage mothers in Morogoro

Image copyright Jackie Leonard Lomboma Image caption Jackie Leonard Lomboma with her daughter Rose, aged 15

I had just finished my primary education; I was supposed to go to secondary education but could not afford the fees.

I met this smart boy, who promised that he would ask his parents to help me go to secondary school if I agreed to be with him.

I didn't date him, like girlfriend and boyfriend.

The first time I met him was the first time I got pregnant and that was the last time I saw him.

Because I was kicked out of school, my grandfather chased me out of home.

I eventually found work as a maid. When the family left, they asked me what I would like as a goodbye gift.

I said I wanted to go to school. It was a shock but they eventually agreed.

It is a big disappointment to hear such a statement from our president. It is only education which can help any country in this world overcome poverty.

'I was a teenage mother'


President Magufuli also criticised rights organisations who have been pushing the government to reverse the law:

"These NGOs should go out and open schools for parents. But they should not force the government [to take back the pupils].

"I'm giving out free education for students who have really decided to go and study, and now you want me to educate the parents?"

The BBC's Sammy Awami in Tanzania reports that the crowd at the rally applauded the president's comments.

At least 8,000 Tanzanian girls drop out of school every year due to pregnancy, according to a Human Rights Watch report.

'Betrayal'

The online petition says that the president's support for the expulsion law would end the education of many girls and "propagate more discrimination".

It instead calls for the girls to be protected from early pregnancies while in school.

The African Women's Development and Communication Network, Femnet has also expressed its outrage.

"With all the work we have done to emancipate Africa's girl-child from the shackles of discrimination and violation, a sitting president turns around to "re-victimze" and treat their situation like a terrible infectious disease which other girls must be protected from," said its head Dinah Musindarwezo.

Lawyer Kavinya Makau called Mr Magafuli's sentiments a" betrayal of the highest order."

Two weeks ago, Tanzania's Vice-President Samia Suluhu called for young mothers to be readmitted to school, saying they should not be denied a right to education.

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Media captionCan apps replace teachers in Tanzania?

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West Africa: 5.6 Million Children At Risk of Waterborne Diseases, Says Unicef

By Ayodamola Owoseye

As the rainy season begins, United Nations Children's Fund, UNICEF, has warned that more than 5.6 million children are at increased risk of contracting waterborne diseases, such as cholera and diarrhoea infections, in conflict-affected areas of countries around Lake Chad.

The humanitarian agency said in a statement Saturday that the threat of disease outbreaks in Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria coincides with growing regional insecurity and increased population movements particularly in Nigeria's northeast.

Marie Pierre Poirier, UNICEF Regional Director for West and Central Africa, said the rains will further complicate what is already a dire humanitarian situation, as millions of children made vulnerable by conflict are now facing the potential spread of diseases.

"Unsafe water, inadequate sanitation and poor hygiene conditions can lead to cholera outbreaks and to Hepatitis E, a deadly disease for pregnant women and their babies, while standing water pools can attract malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Staving off disease is our top priority," it said.

Flooding and muddy roads are expected to severely limit humanitarian access to remote areas for several weeks, just as the needs of children and families are sharply on the rise because of heightened insecurity across the region.

According to the agency, in Nigeria, security concerns have made it difficult to preposition supplies ahead of the rains and UNICEF is concerned about the availability of clean water for large numbers of people returning from Cameroon.

While in the Diffa region of Niger, 150,000 people are living in makeshift shelters and will be exposed to heavy rains and unsanitary conditions.

Ms. Poirier said the 5.6 million children in need in the Lake Chad region are spread across the four countries in varied living conditions from host communities to camps for internally displaced and refugees.

"We adapts methodologies based on community needs to deliver clean water and sanitation in the multiple and complex situations where children are living, she added.

UNICEF said they are working with its partners across the Lake Chad region, in communities at higher risk of cholera outbreaks to teach families about the effects of the disease and practical steps like hand washing to help avoid infection.

While in Niger, Cameroon and Chad, essential drugs and bars of soap have been prepositioned in warehouses close to IDP camps in case of a cholera outbreak.

According to the agency, the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene response in the Lake Chad Basin has received less than 20% of the US$80 million required to meet urgent needs in 2017.

"Despite the lack of funding, this year UNICEF leading the WASH cluster in the crisis, aims to provide 2.7 million people with a basic supply of water needed to survive," UNICEF said.

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South Africa court allows secret Zuma no-confidence vote

Image copyright EPA Image caption Zuma has been implicated in corruption scandals but has survived previous votes of no-confidence

South Africa's highest court has ruled that a vote of no-confidence against President Jacob Zuma can be held in secret.

The constitutional court said that the Speaker of parliament had the right to order such a move. She had previously stated she did not have the power.

Opposition parties believe that under a secret ballot, MPs from Mr Zuma's ANC party would vote against him.

He has survived several previous votes of no-confidence.

Mr Zuma has been under constant pressure over everything from corruption allegations to a controversial cabinet reshuffle that saw his widely respected finance minister fired.

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Delivering his verdict, Chief Justice Mgoeng Mgoeng said that under South Africa's separation of powers, it was up to the Speaker of parliament to decide how the vote was conducted.

The Speaker, Baleka Mbete, is a top ANC official and had argued that the rules of parliament did not allow for a secret ballot. She is yet to say if she will order such a vote.

Mr Zuma said the ruling was unfair, telling parliament "you are trying to get a majority you don't have by saying 'secret ballot'".


Zuma likely to survive, by Milton Nkosi, BBC News, Johannesburg

This decision certainly puts more pressure on President Zuma. But it does not seal his fate.

The ball is back in Baleka Mbete's court. As the Speaker of the national assembly, she has been President Zuma's protector-in-chief in parliament.

Image copyright EPA Image caption Speaker Baleka Mbete must now decide whether the no-confidence vote will be held in secret

A secret ballot is now very likely. The judges effectively told her to hold one and we know from her court submission that she was "not against" it.

But it is still highly unlikely that ANC MPs will vote President Zuma out of power by supporting a vote of no-confidence, particularly one brought by the opposition.

They will use their majority to keep him in office. Mr Zuma's fate, however, will be sealed back at the ranch, when the ANC meets in December to vote in a new presidential candidate. They might just reject his preferred candidate for the 2019 election.


Responding to the ruling, the ANC said it would defeat the motion to remove Mr Zuma, which the opposition Democratic Alliance said presented an opportunity to oust a "toxic" president.

A new date for a motion of no-confidence now has to be set.

On top of the confidence votes, President Zuma has lost a number of prominent court cases against him, including one which ended with him being ordered to pay back a portion of state funds used to refurbish his private home in Nkandla.

But it was the reshuffle that proved particularly damaging, with Mr Zuma facing calls from within his own party to resign.

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Corruption watchdog’s attack on central bank stuns South Africa

In eight months as the head of South Africa's anti-graft agency, Busisiwe Mkhwebane, has avoided the limelight, a break from her predecessor whose dogged pursuit of corruption cases against President Jacob Zuma made her a household name. That changed this week when Mkhwebane, an advocate with 20 years experience, slid a monetary policy bombshell into the findings of an investigation into an apartheid-era bailout of a bank bought by Barclays Africa Group and its constitutional obligation to protect the rand, a central pillar of the post-apartheid state.

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South Africa: Public Protector Makes Waves With State Capture, Apartheid Bailout Reports

RESOURCE: Public Protector Briefs the Media - Releases Four ReportsBy Andre van Wyk

Cape Town — Public Protector Busisiwe Mkhwebane has said that President Jacob Zuma's court bid to to set aside a report that probed alleged "state capture" by his friends, the Gupta family, will be opposed.

Mkhwebane was speaking at a news conference in Pretoria.

At the same time, she also released a report into an apartheid-era bank bailout which found that the government's failure to implement the findings of an earlier investigation into the matter constituted improper conduct and maladministration.

She ordered steps to be taken enabling the government to recover R1.125 billion in misappropriated public funds from ABSA Bank.

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South Africa: ICC to Rule Over South Africa’s Failure to Arrest Indicted Sudanese President

Photo: Mirjam van den Berg/RNW / The Presidency

Top: International Criminal Court in the Hague. Bottom: President of Sudan Omar Al-Bashir, left, and South African President Jacob Zuma, right.

The Hague — The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague is expected to rule over South Africa's failure to arrest President Omar Al Bashir within three weeks.

In June 2015, the Sudanese president travelled to South Africa to visit an AU summit. He decided to return to Sudan on the second day of the meetings to evade arrest.

South Africa as a signatory to the ICC's Rome Statute should have carried out the arrest warrants for Al Bashir, issued by the tribunal in 2009 and 2010, on the basis of five counts of crimes against humanity, two counts of war crimes, and three counts of genocide.

The ICC does not have a police force and it depends on member states to arrest and hand over wanted suspects. The charges are opposed by the AU, the Arab League, Russia, and China.

After his arrival to Johannesburg, a South African provincial court ordered that the indicted Sudanese president had to remain in the country while judges deliberated on his arrest.

The court ruled that Al Bashir should indeed be arrested, but at that time he had already left aboard his aircraft via a military airport. A day later, the High Court in Pretoria refuted the ruling, and concluded that the South African government granted immunity to Al Bashir by inviting him for the AU summit.

In a statement on Friday, the ICC said South Africa's prosecutor and representatives have been invited to attend the ruling about the case scheduled to take place on 6 July. The ruling follows a hearing in April, where South Africa explained why it did not break its obligations to the tribunal.

Sudan has not signed the Rome Statute and argues that the ICC therefore does not have a right to execute a warrant. Al Bashir has denied the charges against him, and continues to travel to various countries with impunity. Recently, he returned to Khartoum from Jordan, another ICC member, where he attended the 28th summit of the Arab League.

Earlier this month, ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda, presenting her 25th report on the situation in Darfur to the UN Security Council, urged the members "to take concrete action and help deliver justice to the victims of the crimes committed in Darfur" by arresting the indicted president.

South Africa

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Nigeria: Top ‘Boko Haram Terrorist’, Aliko, Arrested

Photo: Premium Times

(file photo).

The army on Saturday confirmed the arrest of a suspected Boko Haram terrorist, Aliyu Ahmed, alias "Aliko".

The army spokesman, Sani Usman, said in the statement that "Aliko" was arrested on Friday by troops of 33 Brigade following a tip-off in Yuga village in Toro Local Government Area of Bauchi State, where he has been in hiding.

The army also said it intercepted four child traffickers and 19 under aged children in Yobe.

"He was found to be in possession of one single barrel gun and one Dane gun.

"During preliminary interrogation, he confessed that he actively participated in several Boko Haram terrorists' attacks and also owned an AK-47 Rifle which he lost during one of the attacks they carried out in 2016.

"His interrogation continued," Mr. Usman, a brigadier general, said.

He said the four traffickers, who were arrested by troops of Bravo Company, 120 Battalion at Katarko, were conveying 19 children from Potiskum to Garin Tuwo, Bungai and Buni Yadi in Gujba Local Government Area of Yobe and Galarabala in Biu Local Government Area of Borno.

"Both the suspected traffickers and their victims have been moved to the Brigade Headquarters for transfer to the National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons," the army spokesman said.

(NAN)

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Namibian independence leader ya Toivo to get state funeral

Namibia is planning a state funeral for Herman Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, an independence leader who was jailed alongside Nelson Mandela during South Africa's era of white minority rule. Ya Toivo, 92, died on Friday, drawing tributes from Namibian President Hage Geingob and others who recalled his role as a founder of Swapo, the anti-apartheid movement that evolved into Namibia's ruling party after independence in 1990.

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Zuma’s Graft Scandal Lays Bare Chaos in South African Police

A graft scandal enveloping South African President Jacob Zuma's administration has laid bare the chaos swirling around the nation's law-enforcement agencies and their vulnerability to political manipulation. Local investigative reporters have published a series of reports over the past two weeks that Zuma, 75, allowed members of the wealthy Gupta family to unduly influence government appointments and contracts -- known in South Africa as "state capture."

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South Africa: #Guptaleaks – Will Heads Roll?

Photo: The Presidency

Atul Gupta, left, and President Jacob Zuma (file photo).

"The Guptas have until now escaped investigation from the state agencies because they have purchased indemnity. You have to hand it to the Guptas; the way they went about capturing the state is quite impressive. Not only did they buy the president and his son, they targeted key people in government that could act as their minions. When people were resistant to their agenda, they scouted for bootlickers and had them appointed. They paid off people in the security agencies to make sure they would not be bothered with criminal investigations." - Daily Maverick, June 5, 2017

In the United States and around the world, the news is dominated by the latest twist in President Trump' express train to disaster, including the escalating revelations of the Trump/Russia investigation. In South Africa, to comparatively little notice around the world, the news is dominated by #Guptaleaks, as confidential emails continue to emerge documenting the spiderweb of corruption linking President Zuma and his team to a family of Indian businessmen who arrived in South Africa in 1993 and quickly built up a business empire and political influence.

They also worked with businesses both in South Africa and around the world to manage "illicit financial flows" of the profits to India, Dubai, and elsewhere. Recent investigations, for example, found a mansion in Dubai purchased for President Zuma, adjacent to a similar mansion for President Mugabe of Zimbabwe. Also of note is that many of the companies involved are concentrated in the energy sector, in coal and nuclear in particular.

It is difficult even for South Africans, or for international financial experts and lawyers, to keep up with the wide cast of characters and intrigue that is being exposed, and definitely impossible for those of us not intimately familiar with the South African political and business scene and how international money laundering works. A succinct summary is therefore impossible.

But the impact, although unpredictable, will be decisive for the future of South Africa. To give a glimpse into the issue, AfricaFocus includes here one of the many recent articles from the Daily Maverick and the AmaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism, which have been leading the investigation, and brief excerpts from a comprehensive analysis and report released by the State Capacity Research Project last month.

For updates on #Guptaleaks, even though it has not yet caught the attention of world media, the best strategy for those outside South Africa is a Google news search: as of today, this search gives 90,600 hits, including 50,100 from websites in South Africa.

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on South Africa, visit http://www.africafocus.org/country/southafrica.php

For previous AfricaFocus Bulletins on corruption and illicit financial flows, visit http://www.africafocus.org/intro-iff.php

-- Editor's Note

#GuptaLeaks: What does email trove mean for Zuma and South Africa?

Ranjeni Mumusamy

Daily Maverick, June 5, 2017

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za - Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/ycyhfc5y

Plausible deniability. President Jacob Zuma's greatest self-defence strategy is the ability to manoeuvre to ensure that nothing can be directly pinned on him. From his corruption case to the Nkandla upgrades to the ANC's losses at the polls to the activities of the Gupta family, the president's excuse is either that these things happened without his knowledge or have nothing to do with him. That is the big problem with all the revelations so far from the massive tranche of leaked emails implicating the Gupta family in state capture. Is there a smoking gun that directly connects Zuma to the Guptas' illicit activities? And what are we supposed to do with all this information?

Ever since the private plane full of wedding guests landed at Waterkloof Air Force Base in April 2013, South Africans have known that the Guptas are a bunch of rotters who have free run of the state. Between then and now, there has been a constant stream of revelations about the extent of the Guptas' infiltration of the government system, how they have bought political influence and taken over control from the ANC.

Before the leak of the Gupta emails, the evidence in the public domain was already damning and sufficient to pursue prosecutions. Mcebisi Jonas, then a deputy minister in government, confirmed publicly that he had been offered a R600 million incentive to take the job of finance minister. The circumstances around the purchase of the Optimum coal mine had corruption written all over it. The closure of the Guptas' bank accounts after their transactions had been red flagged by the Financial Intelligence Centre necessitated an investigation into money laundering.

The Guptas have until now escaped investigation from the state agencies because they have purchased indemnity. You have to hand it to the Guptas; the way they went about capturing the state is quite impressive. Not only did they buy the president and his son, they targeted key people in government that could act as their minions. When people were resistant to their agenda, they scouted for bootlickers and had them appointed. They paid off people in the security agencies to make sure they would not be bothered with criminal investigations.

The Guptas also knew how to service and keep their gallery of dancing marionettes happy. Their compound in Saxonwold is like Vegas. Apart from Jonas, former government spokesman Themba Maseko and former ANC MP Vytjie Mentor, whatever happened in Saxonwold stayed in Saxonwold.

The parade of politicians and officials in government and state owned enterprises keep the secrets of whatever is discussed and plotted behind those high walls. In the case of minion without portfolio, Brian Molefe, he would rather conjure up a Saxonwold shebeen than disclose his comings and goings to the Gupta compound.

An essential part of the state capture process was the Guptas' communications operation. Through The New Age and ANN7, the Guptas ran their own propaganda machinery. Through a partnership with the SABC, they not only set up a scheme to channel large payments from state owned enterprises, they were also able to show off their political connections including the president, Cabinet ministers and provincial premiers. Then through the Bell Pottinger spin operation, they paid a range of useful idiots to direct the national discourse, manipulate social media conversations and attempt to demonise journalists.

The Guptas were thorough and tactical. They invested a lot of money in setting up their patronage network of people who would do exactly what they wanted. For a long time, their investment paid massive dividends.

Ordinary people have an odd fascination with audacious crimes. This is why people are still in awe of the Great Train Robbery in 1963 when £2.6 million was stolen from a Royal Mail train. The remake of the comedy heist film Ocean's Eleven raked in over $450 million at the box office because the storyline of the most sophisticated, elaborate casino heist in history continues to enthral people. In South Africa the brazen 1996 R31 million SBV robbery was talked about for years afterwards and also became a movie.

The Public Protector's State of Capture report, the South African Council of Churches Unburdening Panel and the State Capacity Research Project by academics from four universities all show how the Guptas went about gaining access to the state and manipulating people and processes to amass wealth. Through their "silent coup", they progressively sucked away power and influence from the ANC.

The information released from the email trove so far shows minute details of the Guptas behind-the-scenes operations. From their manipulation of contracts to the movement of money to a glimpse into their opulent lifestyles, the emails crank open their world a little wider so that the rest of the world can gawk.

It is almost like a real life Ocean's Eleven with South Africa as the casino being robbed - the Gupta brothers are ugly versions of George Clooney, Brad Pitt and Matt Damon.

The emails reflect that central role of the president's son, Duduzane, in knitting together the patronage network in exchange for the Guptas sponsoring his flamboyant lifestyle. Raunchy attachments to his emails also reveal that he is a philanderer with a taste for the highlife but that simply adds lewd unnecessary details to an already messy story.

What ought to be the focus are the people involved, how the Guptas' representatives pulled people's strings and greased their palms, how money was moved, how money was stolen from the state and who aided and abetted them.

Revelations in the emails of how Gupta employees coached and wrote scripts for ANC officials, including the ANC Youth League president shows that the political discourse in the country is fake and driven by an agenda. It is now clear the radical economic transformation narrative was fabricated to distract change the conversation away from the corrupt activities of the patronage network.

But the email leak has yet to produce the smoking gun that links Zuma directly to the Guptas activities. All that has been revealed has so far been circumstantial and there is no firm evidence that Zuma intends relocating to Dubai. While Duduzane's fingerprints are all over the state capture crime scene, there is nothing to indicate that Zuma was aware or involved in his son's activities.

In this case, the sins of the son cannot be visited upon the father. But that does not mean there is no case to answer. If Zuma were still accountable to the ANC, he would have had to answer how he came to appoint people in his Cabinet that the Guptas scouted. A proper criminal investigation would ask the same questions of Zuma.

Judge Hilary Squires pointed to a "mutually beneficial symbiosis" between Zuma and his former financial advisor Schabir Shaik who was convicted of corruption. While Zuma might have plausible deniability with regard to the emails, there is enough evidence in the public domain for him to answer some hard questions in a credible corruption investigation.

The avalanche of information released from the email tranche could cause a more severe case of scandal fatigue amongst the South African public. There is too much to process and the information simply confirms the extent to which the Guptas infested the state in order to drain resources through numerous channels.

A judicial commission of inquiry might be the only way to process and test all the information credibly. But because Zuma is charged with appointing it, a conflict of interest is bound to arise both regarding which judge he appoints to head it and the terms of reference. Zuma's application for a review of the Public Protector's report that recommended that the Chief Justice name the judge means that the matter will be dragged out for some time before the inquiry can be appointed.

The reliance on the judicial commission of inquiry however lets the police and the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) off the hook in pursuing the matter. The fact that the Hawks and the NPA are not under public pressure to investigate and effect prosecutions means that people accept that these institutions are lost cause and under the thumb of Zuma and the Guptas.

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The emails provide prima facie evidence of corruption, fraud, money laundering and racketeering. These cannot be investigated and prosecuted by a judicial commission. The full extent of the Guptas' activities have yet to be revealed, and possibly might be as reports on the emails reel out. What is needed is an extensive criminal investigation against the Guptas, Duduzane Zuma and others in their network.

Smoking gun or not, whoever is implicated must be investigated. And if there is plausible deniability, let's hear it. In a court of law.

Betrayal of the Promise: How South Africa is Being Stolen

May 2017

State Capacity Research Project

Convenor: Mark Swilling

http://pari.org.za/ - Direct URL: http://tinyurl.com/yaphsta8

Executive Summary

This report suggests South Africa has experienced a silent coup that has removed the ANC from its place as the primary force for transformation in society. Four public moments define this new era: the Marikana Massacre on 16 August 2012; the landing of the Gupta plane at Waterkloof Air Base in April 2013; the attempted bribing of former Deputy Minister of Finance Mcebisi Jonas to sell the National Treasury to the shadow state in late 2015; and the Cabinet reshuffle in March 2017. Resistance and capture is what South African politics is about today.

Commentators, opposition groups and ordinary South Africans underestimate Jacob Zuma, not simply because he is more brazen, wily and brutal than they expect, but because they reduce him to caricature. They conceive of Zuma and his allies as a criminal network that has captured the state. This approach, which is unfortunately dominant, obscures the existence of a political project at work to repurpose state institutions to suit a constellation of rent-seeking networks that have been constructed and now span the symbiotic relationship between the constitutional and shadow state. This is akin to a silent coup. This report documents how the Zuma-centred power elite has built and consolidated this symbiotic relationship between the constitutional state and the shadow state in order to execute the silent coup.

At the nexus of this symbiosis are a handful of the same individuals and companies connected in one way or another to the Gupta- Zuma family network. The way that this is strategically coordinated constitutes the shadow state. Well-placed individuals located in the most significant centres of state power (in government, SOEs and the bureaucracy) make decisions about what happens within the constitutional state. Those, like Jonas, Vytjie Mentor, Pravin Gordhan and Themba Maseko who resist this agenda in one way or another are systematically removed, redeployed to other lucrative positions to silence them, placed under tremendous pressure, or hounded out by trumped up internal and/or external charges and dubious intelligence reports. This is a world where deniability is valued, culpability is distributed (though indispensability is not taken for granted) and where trust is maintained through mutually binding fear. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the shadow state is not only the space for extra-legal action facilitated by criminal networks, but also where key security and intelligence actions are coordinated.

It has been argued in this report that from about 2012 onwards the Zuma-centred power elite has sought to centralise the control of rents to eliminate lower-order, rentseeking competitors. The ultimate prize was control of the National Treasury to gain control of the Financial Intelligence Centre (which monitors illicit flows of finance), the Chief Procurement Office (which regulates procurement and activates legal action against corrupt practices), the Public Investment Corporation (the second largest shareholder on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange), the boards of key development finance institutions, and the guarantee system (which is not only essential for making the nuclear deal work, but with a guarantee state entities can borrow from private lenders/banks without parliamentary oversight). The cabinet reshuffle in March 2017 has made possible this final control of the National Treasury.

The capture of the National Treasury, however, followed five other processes that consolidated power and centralised control of rents:

The ballooning of the public service to create a compliant politically-dependent, bureaucratic class. The sacking of the ‘good cops' from the police and intelligence services and their replacement with loyalists prepared to cover up illegal rent seeking (with some forced reversals, for example, Robert McBride) Redirection of the procurement-spend of the SOEs to favour those prepared to deal with the Gupta-Zuma network of brokers (those who are not, do not get contracts, even if they have better BEE credentials and offer lower prices). Subversion of Executive Authority that has resulted in the hollowing out of the Cabinet as South Africa's pre-eminent decision-making body and in its place the establishment of a set of ‘kitchen cabinets' of informally constituted elites who compete for favour with Zuma in an unstable crisis-prone complex network; The consolidation of the Premier League as a network of party bosses, to ensure that the National Executive Committee of the ANC remains loyal.

At the epicentre of the political project mounted by the Zuma-centred power elite is a rhetorical commitment to radical economic transformation. Unsurprisingly, although the ANC's official policy documents on radical economic transformation encompass a broad range of interventions that take the National Development Plan as a point of departure, the Zuma-centred power elite emphasises the role of the SOEs, particularly their procurement spend. Eskom and Transnet, in turn, are the primary vehicles for managing state capture, large-scale looting of state resources and the consolidation of a transnationally managed financial resource base, which in turn creates a continuous source of self-enrichment and funding for the power elite and their patronage network.

In short, instead of becoming a new economic policy consensus, radical economic transformation has been turned into an ideological football kicked around by factional political players within the ANC and the Alliance in general who use the term to mean very different things.

The alternative is a new economic consensus. Since 1994 there has never been an economic policy framework that has enjoyed the full support of all stakeholders. A new economic consensus would be a detailed programme of radical economic transformation achieved within the constitutional, legislative and governance framework. The focus must be a wide range of employment- and livelihood-creating investments rather than a few ‘big and shiny' capital-intensive infrastructure projects that reinforce the mineral-energy-complex. For this to happen, an atmosphere of trust conducive for innovation- oriented partnerships between business, government, knowledge institutions and social enterprises is urgently required. None of this is achievable, however, until the shadow state is dismantled and the key perpetrators of state capture brought to justice.

Jacob Zuma comes to power

Jacob Zuma was elected ANC President at the Polokwane conference in December 2007. In July 2008, Duduzile Zuma, his 26-year-old daughter, was asked to join the board of the Gupta technology company Sahara Computers (she resigned in 2010). Duduzane, her twin brother, was also taken under the Gupta's wing and joined Sahara, though the date is unclear. The twins were two of the five children of Jacob Zuma and Kate Mantsho, who committed suicide in 2000. Zuma is reported as having always felt particularly concerned about their wellbeing.

...

Origins of the nuclear deal

In May 2010, ... the media broke a story that Gupta-owned company Oakbay Resources and Energy, together with minority shareholders, including Duduzane Zuma's BEE vehicle, Mabengela Investments, was the buyer of Toronto-listed Uranium One's Dominion mine in Klerksdorp. Oakbay paid $37 million (about R280 million). Mabengela Investments is reportedly jointly controlled by Duduzane Zuma and Gupta brother Rajesh (Mabengela is named after a hill overlooking President Jacob Zuma's Nkandla homestead).

At the time that Oakbay bought Dominion - later named Shiva Uranium - media speculation was rife that President Zuma had intervened a month earlier, in April 2010, to extend the tenure of then Public Investment Corporation head Brian Molefe to facilitate negotiations towards a large investment in the project. The Presidency denied these allegations, saying that the president's son was, "a businessman in his own right", and did not need his father's help.

The interesting thing was that Dominion had been on ‘care and maintenance' since 2008 with Uranium One chief executive Jean Nortier saying: "We had to close that chapter; we certainly weren't going to try to bring Dominion back into production — it certainly was going to require too much capital." Bringing Dominion back to full production was projected to cost far more than the $37 million purchase price, according to media reports. ...

... in retrospect, the Zuma power elite had their sights set on a large-scale nuclear programme that would create a new and lucrative market for uranium. Molefe, then CEO of the Public Investment Corporation, seems to enter the story at this point in what may have been his first act to ingratiate himself with the Zuma group after being identified for so long as an ‘Mbeki man'. Although he denied having a hand in the Gupta's Uranium One deal, there seem to be too many unexplainable coincidences.

The timing is indicative. According to amaBhungane, Molefe's last day as CEO of the Public Investment Corporation would have been 12 April 2010, two days before the Dominion transaction was closed.

However, his contract was extended for three months, to the reported irritation of senior ANC and alliance officials. At the time, the Sunday Times reported that Jacob Zuma was "understood to have phoned a senior official in the finance ministry to ask that Molefe remain in the job."

According to amaBhungane, company registration documents show that Atul Gupta and Duduzane Zuma took over as directors of the Dominion holding company on 14 April, the day the sale was finalised. If, as alleged in media reports, Molefe was involved in negotiations to commit Public Investment Corporation funding, his departure at that crucial time might have compromised the negotiations. The investment committee rejected the deal as being too risky, but the Industrial Development Corporation provided the loan.

Guptas go transnational

In December 2014, it emerged that the Guptas allegedly make use of the global financial system in what law enforcement circles refer to as ‘shadow transnationalism' - an essential element for brokers facilitating large-scale criminality to "navigate resources to international clearing hubs where they enter the legitimate trade and accrue value to the members of the network". 61 The deal involved the listing of Oakbay and a R100 million Industrial Development Corporation loan, given to the company in 2010 to buy the Shiva Uranium mine.

On 28 November 2014, the Gupta company, Oakbay Resources and Energy, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Atul Gupta, his wife Chetali, brother Rajesh and sisterin -law Arti own about 80 percent of the company. Oakbay's main asset, and the main driver of its value, was its subsidiary Shiva Uranium.

But, according to an amaBhungane investigation and documents observed by this group of researchers, the Guptas appear to have significantly inflated Oakbay's market value above the inherent value given at the time, with the help of a Gupta associate in Singapore. This allowed them to pay off their Industrial Development Corporation loan, but it also meant that the state- owned entity lost out when the Oakbay share price market corrected. At the time that this story broke, Oakbay's financials showed that it had not been able to maintain profitability at Shiva. According to the 2010 purchase agreement for the mine, the entire debt should have been repaid by April 2013. But Oakbay's financials stated that, by the end February 2014, only R20 million had been paid and the debt with interest had grown to R399 million.

In June 2014, after negotiations with the Industrial Development Corporation, they agreed to restructure the debt, including a new repayment schedule that would end in 2018. As part of this agreement, and as Oakbay's pre-listing statement showed, the Industrial Development Corporation would take a small stake (about 3.6 percent) in Oakbay in lieu of the debt. Oakbay's interim financials at the end of August 2014 gave the company a net asset value of about R4.6 billion, which translated into an asset value of R5.74 a share, according to amaBhungane. 62 This dropped to R4.84 a share once substituted with the lower value put on them by a valuer appointed as part of the listing requirements.

Despite this, Oakbay listed at R10 a share, which was nearly double the underlying asset value. This was significant, because it was this R10 ‘market' value, minus a 10 percent discount, at which the Industrial Development Corporation got shares (its 3.6 percent) in lieu of Oakbay's outstanding debt. When compared with the underlying value of R5.74 provided by Oakbay's own financials, or to the adjusted R4.84, the Industrial Development Corporation ultimately gave Oakbay a discount of between R93- R119 million (essentially cash in hand to clear their debt - an ultimate loss to South Africa given that these are state resources).

The question was how Oakbay allegedly inflated its market value. The answer, according to an AmaBhungane investigation, lay in Singapore, where a company called Unlimited Electronic & Computers paid R10 a share in a private placement shortly before the listing acquiring 2.3 percent of the company. Unlimited Electronic & Computers, according to amaBhungane, is owned by Kamran ‘Raj' Radiowala, who has been associated with the Guptas since about 2006. Online company registration data cited by amaBhungane has him being appointed managing director of an Indian electronics distribution company, SES Technologies, in 2007. SES was co-owned by the Guptas' South African business Sahara Computers, and its board included Ashu Chawla, one of their associates in South Africa. The SES chief operating officer for some time was George van der Merwe, who held the same position at Sahara and who was the former CEO of Oakbay.

... and move their money offshore

In July 2015, the first detailed analysis of how the Guptas move the proceeds of their business activities was presented by amaBhungane. Their operation centres on a Gupta-controlled shell company called Homix. Shell companies, by virtue of the ownership anonymity that they provide, are classic vehicles for money laundering and other illicit financial activity. According to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network:

The term 'shell company' generally refers to limited liability companies and other business entities with no significant assets or ongoing business activities. Shell companies - formed for both legitimate and illicit purposes - typically have no physical presence other than a mailing address, employ no one, and produce little to no independent economic value.

Between 2014 and 2015, Homix moved R166 million through its accounts, primarily from five companies. As is characteristic of shell companies, Homix has no discernible office infrastructure or staff commensurate with a company processing such large sums of money, according to amaBhungane, which visited its premises. Bank records obtained by amaBhungane, and other bank records observed by this group of researchers, show that as the money came into the Homix bank account, it immediately went straight out again, to an equally obscure entity called Bapu Trading.

This pattern displays the three classic money laundering characteristics of placement, layering and integration where placement is the movement of cash from its source (the five companies), followed by placing it into circulation (layering) through, among other mechanisms, financial institutions and other businesses (for example Homix), and finally integration, the purpose of which is to make it more difficult to detect and uncover by law enforcement.

...

Enter Mosebenzi Zwane

On 22 September 2015, President Zuma - reportedly to the surprise of even top members of the ANC - announced that he would fill a six-month-old vacancy in his Cabinet with the relatively unknown Mosebenzi Zwane, who he appointed to the critically important mineral resources portfolio. Zwane's appointment as a minister escalated him from a backbencher member of parliament who previously had been in the Free State provincial government. He had no experience in mining or in a national portfolio position. His origins in the Free State suggest that this was a move orchestrated by Ace Magashule.

In April 2016, seven months after Zwane's appointment, Gupta-owned Tegeta Exploration & Resources acquired Optimum coal mine from Glencore. Duduzane Zuma owns 12.8 percent of Tegeta. Various members of the Gupta family own 36 percent of the company, Gupta associate Salim Essa owns 21.5 percent and just over 20 percent is owned by two off-shore companies registered in the United Arab Emirates, for which ownership details are unavailable.

The Guptas bought Optimum from Glencore for R2.2 billion. The purchase was, however, riddled with allegations of political interference and bias towards sectional business interests, namely the Guptas. It is now widely accepted that Eskom prejudiced Glencore, by using the full might of the law, to force Optimum into business rescue to enable Tegeta to buy the company on highly favourable terms. Former Public Protector Madonsela's State of Capture report found that Eskom may have repeatedly broken the law to accommodate Tegeta. ...

In December 2015, while Van der Riet and Ramavhona were still on suspension and Tegeta's purchase of Optimum was being finalised, Tegeta was granted a short-term contract to supply 255 000 tons of coal a month to another power station, Arnot. It subsequently emerged that the award of this contract resulted in Eskom extending Tegeta a R586 million (ex VAT) upfront payment for this coal supply, six hours after the Gupta company's banks refused them a R600 million loan to close the Optimum Coal deal. The State of Capture report concluded that the payment was likely pushed through to plug a R600 million hole in the R2 billion the Guptas needed to buy Optimum. At a special late-night tender committee meeting on 11 April 2016, Eskom executives, led by Brian Molefe, agreed to transfer R586 million to Tegeta - money that was then used, two days later, to help pay for the purchase of Optimum.

...

The draft findings of a year-long National Treasury investigation concluded in April 2017 that the prepayment should be treated as a loan. According to the investigation: "The advance payment of R659 558 079 should be regarded as a loan because there is no evidence that Optimum Coal Mine or Tegeta Exploration and Resources used the funds to procure any equipment for increasing the volume of the coal or further processing the coal," adding that the interest should be recovered from Tegeta or the Eskom officials involved. The draft report also recommended that a forensic audit firm be appointed to "investigate why Eskom gave and continues to give preferential treatment to Tegeta ... by not enforcing key conditions of the Coal Supply Agreement".

In August 2016, Eskom acting CEO Matshela Koko, gave Tegeta a R7 billion coal contract without a tender, ignoring warnings from the National Treasury that such a contract could be irregular. Under the contract, Tegeta's Koornfontein Mines would deliver 2.4 million tons of coal a year at R414 a ton to Komati power station, 40 kilometres south of Middelburg. The contract was due to run until August 2023. However, two months after the seven-year contract was signed, Eskom's board decided to mothball the power station. This means that Eskom will either need to buy Tegeta out of the contract or assume the cost of transporting the coal to another power station, at least 50 kilometres away.

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.com | Dear Mr. President

Today I miss the rain, the sound of water patter-pattering like a continuous prayer. I miss the scent of hope rising from the dry clay, spreading new life across the barren earth, writes James de Villiers .

Start the conversation, or Read more at News24.

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Zimbabwe: Mugabe ‘Anoints’ Chosen Successor

Photo: The Herald

From left, Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, Defence Minister Sydney Sekeramai, President Robert Mugabe, and First Lady Grace Mugabe.

By Obey Manayiti

President Robert Mugabe could have given the biggest hint yet of his preferred successor after his first campaign event on Friday and a presentation by Higher and Tertiary Education minister Jonathan Moyo, a day earlier where he put forward Defence minister Sydney Sekeramayi as one of the most qualified people to take over from the 93-year-old ruler.

Mugabe used a meeting organised by the Zanu PF youth league in Marondera on Friday to berate ruling party factions jostling for his post, in remarks that appeared targeted at Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa's faction.

He rejected the notion among Lacoste supporters that it was now time for Karangas to rule, which would derail Sekeramayi's ambitions. Mugabe insisted that the next leader would be chosen at congress.

At the Marondera rally, Sekeramayi was uncharacteristically given the rare opportunity to give a vote of thanks, which is usually reserved for Mugabe's two deputies, Mnangagwa and his counterpart Phelekezela Mphoko.

Zanu PF youth chairperson Kudzanayi Chipanga also kept referring to the party's "Look East policy", in what insiders said meant the party's leader will come from the east. Sekeramayi is the most senior party leader from Mashonaland East.

Analysts said Moyo's utterances and the events at the Marondera rally were a clear indication that Mugabe might be finally making a move about his successor as concerns mount about his failing health.

Moyo -- speaking in his personal capacity -- at a Sapes Trust Policy Dialogue Forum on Thursday, said Sekeramayi was a far better candidate to succeed Mugabe than Mnangagwa who is linked to Team Lacoste.

Political analyst and Sapes director, Ibbo Mandaza said the Zanu PF strategist's utterances were not accidental.

"I am sure so. There has been no contradiction of his position so far except from the expected quarters," he said.

"It appears that they [G40] are fighting back and not that alone but maybe the succession issue is now resolved or is being resolved."

G40, a Zanu PF faction linked to Moyo, has been at the receiving end for the past two months, with one of its key members, Zanu PF national commissar Saviour Kasukuwere under pressure from protestors who wanted him fired on allegations of plotting to overthrow Mugabe by allegedly forming parallel structures.

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Two other key G40 members, Bulawayo provincial affairs minister, Eunice Sandi-Moyo and Hurungwe East MP, Sarah Mahoka were forced to resign from the Zanu PF women's league where they were deputy secretary and treasurer respectively.

But Moyo, who has been quiet for the past few months, used the Sapes event to renew his attacks on Mnangagwa.

"The notion peddled by the so-called Team Lacoste that its leader is the only one who is above or senior to everyone else below President Mugabe is false and that falsehood should stop. There are others that are senior to the leader of the so-called Team Lacoste," he said.

"One of them, by way of an important example, is Dr Sydney Sekeramayi whose loyalty to President Mugabe, the party and country; whose liberation credentials, experience, consensus-style of leadership, stature, commitment to the nationalist project and humility have no match."

Legal expert Alex Magaisa also said Moyo appeared to have the backing of Mugabe or first lady Grace for him to throw Sekeramayi's name into the ring.

"Sekeramayi has often been referred to as the 'dark horse' of the succession race. It is also important to consider the role of Mugabe's hand in the latest developments," Magaisa wrote on his blog yesterday.

"During his delivery, Moyo looked relaxed and confident, with the assurance of a man who knew what he was doing.

"He was ready and prepared to discuss the succession issue openly. It is hard to imagine that he threw in Sekeramayi's name by accident."

He said Moyo was clever enough to have known, or anticipated, the implications of deploying Sekeramayi's name in the context of his stinging criticism and dismissal of Mnangagwa's presidential ambitions.

Magaisa said there were striking similarities between Sekeramayi and Mnangagwa, both having been in influential positions since independence, including the ministry of and Defence.

The two are war veterans who have been working hard to keep Mugabe in power.

Youth and Indigenisation minister Patrick Zhuwao, who has been linked to G40 despite his repeated denials, yesterday sprang to Moyo's defence on his remarks over the thorny Zanu PF succession issue while berating the state media for "flagging a dead horse".

Zhuwao said an editorial in the state media which described him and Kasukuwere as Moyo's cheerleaders for attending the Sapes forum was a childhood tactic meant to bully him into silence.

He claimed to have started participating and presenting at Sapes events when he was still in Form 4, over 30 years ago.

"The Herald's editorial policy seeks to enforce an idiotic notion of command thinking under the foolishly mistaken notion propagated by the doomed successionist Team Lacoste's paper tigers who are seeking to cow Zimbabweans into being submissive cowards. Hatisi mbwende dzino vhundutsirwa nezizi risina nyanga [We are not cowards who can easily be intimidated by pretenders]," Zhuwao said.

Zhuwao said he fully supported Moyo's exhortation that "The time has come for the silent majority to stand up and speak up. Silence must not be an option for those who support the president".

He alleged the state media was employing the Blue Ocean Strategy that chronicled how Team Lacoste would wipe off G40.

Zhuwao told The Standard that Moyo's remarks were very credible as an academic analysis.

He said the state media, starting during the build-up to last year's One Man Million March, has been critical about the youth league activities.

Zhuwao said he was surprised by another attempt by ZBC to try and tarnish Mugabe's Youth Interface meetings last week.

"Even as we went towards the run up of this major event which is testimony to the organisational capability of our young people, you also find that the ZBC of Monday edition actually attempting to have a story of trying to call youths a lost generation, which is entirely nonsensical."

He accused the state media of trying to prop up Team Lacoste, which he described as a dead horse, adding the alternative media had proved more relevant and objective.

In 2014, Mugabe saved Sekeremayi after he was identified as one of several senior ruling party officials that were sympathetic to former vice-president Joice Mujuru, who was accused of plotting to topple Mugabe.

The Defence minister is also one of the few Zanu PF leaders that have been consistently retained in Mugabe's Cabinet since 1980.

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It’s official: Brian Molefe’s out of Eskom – again

It’s official: Brian Molefe’s out of Eskom - again

Tmg Digital | 2017-06-02 19:05:50.0

Eskom CEO Brian Molefe. File photo
Image by: Alon Skuy

Brian Molefe’s reappointment as chief executive of Eskom on May 2 was rescinded on Friday by the power utility’s board.

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Ben Ngubane‚ chairperson of Eskom’s board‚ said this was in line with Public Works Minister Lynne Brown’s instruction on May 31.

The board also rescinded the reinstatement agreement between Molefe and Eskom dated May 11.

Resigned‚ retrenched‚ retired‚ rescinded: Twitter roasts Molefe 

Molefe was appointed to head up Eskom in October 2015 on Brown’s recommendation‚ who said he had a reputation for “turning things around” given his performance at Transnet.

But his Eskom appointment would end in tears.

Molefe allegedly enjoyed the hospitality of a Saxonwold shabeen – the term that came to signify the Gupta’s influence over South African politics - his explanation for why his cellphone placed him in the vicinity of the influential family’s home.

Prior to this‚ in an interview with EWN‚ Molefe had expressed support for the controversial family‚ saying the treatment of the family smacked of xenophobia.

"I don't see how it's different from the guy who was stabbed and killed in Alexandra‚ just because they didn't like him or they didn't like the way he spoke‚" said Molefe.

Molefe resigned‚ saying it was for the sake of good governance at Eskom.

Gupta associates scored billions in kickbacks from Transnet deals - report 

He faired well though‚ because the ANC appointed him as a member of Parliament.

Rumours at the time suggested that this was so that President Jacob Zuma could replace then Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan.

When Zuma reshuffled his cabinet in March‚ the position went to Malusi Gigaba. The public outcry may have dissuaded the president from picking Molefe for the post.

Molefe hit the headlines again when it was revealed that he was due a R30-million early retirement payout. Brown put the brakes on this payout.

Then Molefe made a jubilant return to Eskom‚ claiming he hadn’t resigned but had taken unpaid leave.

During the hearings by the inter-ministerial committee‚ appointed to investigate the Molefe resign-retire-unpaid leave saga‚ Brown was advised to reverse Molefe’s reappointment. The minister announced at the end of May that she had instructed the board to rescind that reappointment.

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Angolan president returns home after health checks

Angolan president returns home after health checks

AFP | 2017-05-30 12:27:57.0

President Dos Santos, who has been in power since 1979, will not contest an election in August, marking a historic change in the oil-rich country. File photo
Image by: AMPE ROGERIO / AFP

Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who has been dogged by reports of poor health, has returned to Luanda after nearly a month in Spain, party officials said Tuesday.

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Dos Santos's medical condition has recently been subject to fierce speculation, with his daughter Isabel forced to deny rumours that he had died while in Spain.

Anastacio de Brito, spokesman for the ruling MPLA party, told AFP that the 74-year-old president arrived back in Angola on Monday evening.

The party confirmed for the first time on Monday that dos Santos had undergone medical checks while in Spain on an extended "private visit".

Dos Santos, who has been in power since 1979, will not contest an election in August, marking a historic change in the oil-rich country.

He has reportedly received cancer treatment in Barcelona over several years.

Defence Minister Joao Lourenco has emerged as Dos Santos's chosen successor and is on course to take power after the election.

Opposition parties have called for the government to be more transparent about the president's health.

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Africa: Charity Calls for ‘Period Emoji’ to Address Taboo of Menstruation

Photo: Pixabay

Emoji.

By Lin Taylor

London — There are symbols for avocado, a telescope, and even a unicorn, but menstruation is not represented as an 'emoji'

A 'period emoji' on mobile devices could help break the taboo of menstruation, according to an international child rights group, which is pushing for an icon to help highlight the stigma that girls experience when they menstruate.

Menstruation is still taboo in many countries around the world, where it's often considered embarrassing or shameful. Women refer to periods using some 5,000 euphemisms, such as "on the rag" and "Bloody Mary", a 2016 survey of 90,000 people in 190 countries found.

"Girls and women have told us about the embarrassment and shame they suffer when it's their period. We need to make it easier to talk about something that is part of everyday life," said Danny Vannucchi, Plan International's campaigns manager.

While there are symbols for avocado, a telescope, and even a unicorn, menstruation is not represented as an 'emoji', a small icon on smartphones and tablets commonly used to express emotions or physical things.

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But that is something Plan International wants to change. The charity last week launched five 'period emojis' and invited the public to vote for their preferred icon. As of Monday, more than 15,000 people had voted, it said.

The winning design will be submitted to coding consortium Unicode for consideration, which distributes emojis across mobile devices.

"We're not saying that an emoji would solve all of these problems, but it will start a conversation, and raise awareness of the challenges women and girls face worldwide - and that can only be a good thing," Vannucchi told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

He said issues related to reproduction and the sexual health of girls are often considered "dirty", so girls are forced to keep quiet about menstruation which adds to the taboo.

"It's completely normal, but in many settings there is still a false belief that menstruation is dirty and shameful," he said.

"These taboos can have a damaging impact on the lives of girls and adolescents, from missing school because they face bullying or unfair treatment, to causing infections due to a lack of menstrual hygiene education and products."

On any given day more than 800 million women between 15 and 49 have their period. However, globally 1.25 billion women do not have access to a toilet during menstruation, according to the charity WaterAid.

The United Nations estimates that due to a lack of facilities, one in 10 girls in Africa will miss school during their period and will eventually drop out of school as a result.

- Reporting by Lin Taylor @linnytayls, Editing by Ros Russell

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Why Dlamini-Zuma will be the next president of South Africa – BusinessTech

Research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto says that the race to be the next president of the ANC is going to kick up a gear now that the party’s NEC has opened up discussions – and will likely be a dirty one.

The analyst said he and the Nomura team were recently in South Africa looking at the factions in the succession debate, and to understand politics, personalities and policies involved.

It is understood that deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and president Jacob Zuma’s favoured candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma are the front-runners in the race – but neither one is seen as a sure thing by either side of the ANC’s factions.

“We sense confidence from the Zuma faction that it can win, but this is not 100%. We sense some misgivings over their candidate and that she is there for lack of anyone else really suitable,” the analyst said.

“The same can also be said of the Ramaphosa camp, where again there are misgivings internally about his candidature, but a lack of anyone else suitable yet with enough coalescing power.

“We have been told repeatedly by the Ramaphosa camp that we underestimate him, and yet in the next breath conceded that the other side will not stick to the rules.”

According to Attard Montalto, there have been attempts from the Ramaphosa camp to reach some sort of compromise – however, the Dlamini-Zuma camp, emboldened by president Zuma’s power base in the NEC, have been happy to dig deeper into factionalism.

“That said, with elements of both factions somewhat uneasy with their candidates we wonder about tail risk, where the whole thing flips out in H2 to some other sets of candidates, but this is not our baseline.”

These are some of the other outcomes of Nomura’s analysis of the ANC’s presidential race:

Ramaphosa – winning over the public, but losing the power struggle

Ramaphosa is well-funded, but is trailing behind in operational logistics, particularly in campaign staffing. Campaigning is at a ‘quiet’ stage, with lots of speeches. After the policy conference, the race is expected to get more aggressive, with underhanded tactics being used to shut the other factions down. Ramaphosa has the most to lose here. Ramaphosa is working to change the long-standing impression that he has done little in public or behind the scenes to show any drive for the Presidency or ability to get things done for the better for South Africa (or investors). Ramaphosa is receiving a warm reception ‘on the ground’ around the country. Ramaphosa will ‘win’ the broad public battle and approval in the media. He may also win the hearts and minds of ordinary ANC members. His support at grassroots level is still up in the air, however.

Dlamini-Zuma – Zuma’s favourite and keeper of his legacy

According to Nomura, Dlamini-Zuma appears to be the more well-funded of the two candidate, and is further ahead in operational logistics and staffing for her campaign. The Dlamini-Zuma camp will use land as a key policy wedge in the party after the policy conference – even if such a policy may well not see the light of day during her Presidency. Dlamini-Zuma is receiving a cold response ‘on the ground’ around the country, but has far more vocal supporters. Dlamini-Zuma will benefit from the ‘logical capabilities’ of the Zuma-era – specifically vote buying, fake ANC members, shadow branches and political violence and intimidation. These tactics will play in securing a majority of the 4,500 ANC delegates at the conference. The Dlamini-Zuma faction believes that after the elective conference, all votes will return to the ANC for the 2019 national election. The faction does not appear concerned about the 2019 election at all. Because of the current structure of the ANC, Dlamini-Zuma is seen as the winner, with a 60% chance at victory.

According to Nomura, things may still change over the next 6 months as the succession battle opens up – and will get particularly interesting when cabinet ministers declare their support for candidates.

Eyes will be on finance minister Malusi Gigaba, especially, as this will give insight for investors to see where he stands.

The investment firm said that, unlike previous conferences, this elective conference will be purely factional, and there will be little to no room for neutrality.

With a likely Dlamini-Zuma win, president Jacob Zuma will probably step down as soon as possible, giving her room to address the nation during SONA 2018, and approach the May 2019 elections as a sitting president, it said.


Read: ANC NEC has known about state capture for years: analyst

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EU imposes sanctions on nine in DR Congo

The people targeted by asset freezes and travel bans "hold positions of responsibility in the state administration and in the chain of command of the security forces," the EU said in a statement.

They join seven people targeted by EU sanctions in December after clashes with protesters against Kabila last year left more than 50 people dead.

Brussels had warned in March that it could impose fresh measures if political and military leaders blocked a deal with the opposition over Kabila's refusal to step down at the end of his term late last year.

"The European Union remains seriously concerned by the deterioration of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," the EU said.

The sanctions also hit the current and former DRC ministers for the interior Ramazani Shadari and Evariste Boshab, respectively, the governor of Central Kasai province Alex Kande Mupompa and the former governor of Haut-Katanga Jean-Claude Kazembe as well as senior officers and a militia leader, the EU said.

They were listed for "having contributed to acts constituting serious human rights violations in the DRC, by planning, directing or committing them."

Mende, currently in China, was sanctioned "for the repressive media policy" in the country, it added.

A government source in Kinshasa told AFP that the situation "is very worrisome" and accused the EU of trying to "destabilise the DRC, like Libya or Iraq".

Tension has been mounting across the vast mineral-rich nation of 71 million people since December, when Kabila's second and final term officially ended but elections failed to be held.

Under an agreement brokered with the Catholic Church on New Year's Eve, Kabila, 45, would remain in office until elections in late 2017, ruling in tandem with a transitional watchdog and a new premier chosen from within the ranks of the opposition "Rassemblement" (Unity) coalition.

The Kasai region in particular has seen a major spike in violence since September, when government forces killed Kamwina Nsapu, a tribal chief and militia leader who had rebelled against Kabila.

In its statement, while the EU "firmly condemned all acts of violence," it said reports of excessive force by Congolese forces in Kasai were worrying and called on authorities to "act in keeping with human rights laws".

The deadly violence between government forces and tribal militias in Kasai has forced more than a million people from their homes over the past eight months, the UN said, and has left nearly 400,000 children at risk of dying from hunger.

Violence in the region has left at least 400 people dead since September, according to the UN, which has reported finding 40 mass graves, while two UN researchers investigating the violence were abducted and killed.

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